Would Armenians Accept Azerbaijani Resettlement in Their Former Controlled Territories?

The Armenians' response to the return of Azerbaijani populations to lands they controlled prior to the 2020 conflict varies widely. While some Armenians are more or less indifferent regarding the possibility of an armed conflict with Azerbaijan, others are firmly resolved to prevent any Azerbaijani occupation of territories that were once under Armenia's control. This resolution stems from their belief that these lands are rightfully theirs, and they are willing to fight to reclaim them.

Fear and Ethnic Incidents

The current situation is marked by a resurgent sense of fear and regular ethnic incidents. By the 1980s, border regions between the Armenian and Azerbaijani Republics witnessed occasional acts of physical violence, theft, kidnappings, and other crimes. Today, these same conditions have reignited, making the region anything but peaceful. Ethnic tensions and violent incidents are far more frequent and widespread than they have been in the years since the 1994 ceasefire.

Decreased Inter-Ethnic Violence After Ceasefire

For two decades following the 1994 ceasefire, inter-ethnic violence was at a minimum. The front line was largely quiet, with sporadic sniper fire causing minimal harm. Villagers and communities lived far enough apart that neither side could easily justify frequent attacks or criminal actions against the other. However, with the return of Azerbaijani forces to these territories, the situation has drastically changed. Kidnappings and other forms of violence have become much more common and widespread, posing a significant threat to Armenian civilians.

Post-Ceasefire Violence and Persecution

Following the ceasefire of the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Azerbaijan immediately saw a rise in violent incidents, including kidnappings. These attacks extended beyond the conflict zone, targeting Armenian settlements in the Republic of Armenia and the former Nagorno-Karabakh territories. Murders, psychological warfare, and false imprisonments have all contributed to an atmosphere of fear and instability. Armenian civilians, many of whom had no part in the past conflicts, are now living in constant danger.

Feeling of Fear Amongst Ordinary Armenians

The return of Azerbaijani populations to these regions has brought about a wave of fear among ordinary Armenians, especially those living in nearby settlements. This fear is not only about the potential for armed conflict but also about the reality of ongoing violence and persecution. Many Armenians believe that the end of the Armenian occupation and the return of these territories to Azerbaijan should have brought peace and stability, not an increased frequency of violent incidents.

Conclusion: The Shift in Attitudes

This analysis does not absolve Armenians of having held territories under their control prior to the 2020 conflict or of the crimes committed during that period. Instead, it calls for an honest discussion about the current situation. The return of Azerbaijani populations and the resumption of conflict has led to a significant increase in violence, and it is crucial that this is acknowledged and addressed.